NEW ORLEANS—Louisiana is leading the nation in loss of population, supplanting North Dakota in percentage of population decline, new U.S. Census data shows.
If the trend continues, Louisiana could rank last in population growth when the 2010 Census is completed.
Between 2000 and 2008, Louisiana’s population — estimated at 4.4 million in 2000 — fell by about 58,000, or 1.3 per-cent, the Census’ annual survey updates show. The only other state to lose people over that same period, North Dakota, saw a drop of 0.1 percent.
The new figures — interim to the formal Census in 2010 — indicate Louisiana is facing serious problems with outmigration, especially among younger and better educated people, demo-graphers who track such trends in the state say. A string of monster hurricanes — Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike — exacerbated the slide.
“Louisiana leads the nation in out-migration,” said Elliott Stonecipher, a Shreveport-based demographic analyst. “Going on 30 years, we’ve had a steady flow of people out the door.”
One root cause is the oil bust of the mid-1980s, which sucked jobs and employers out of the state’s oil and natural gas dominated economy. Since then, population gains have been mostly flat and now downward.
“This is something we’ve been barking about for a long time,” said Greg Rigamer, a New Orleans-based demographer.
Louisiana has not been able to keep pace with other Southern states since 1960. Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina exceeded national growth rates while Louisiana fell well short, according to an analysis done by Rigamer.
“It’s kind of ironic, (Louisianans) weren’t going far: They were going to Dallas, Houston, Atlanta,” said Charles Tolbert, a demographer and sociologist at Baylor University. “So it’s not the South. They perceived better opportunity elsewhere than Louisiana.”
But Louisiana’s decline probably can’t compare to that of North Dakota, Tolbert said.
“There’s not a complete economic collapse, such as you see in the Great Plains farm states,” he said.
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La. last in population growth
January 16, 2009
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